An uncertain outlook for the US market

(April 2025) | Following solid economic growth of approximately 2.8% in 2024, the US economy is expected to continue expanding in 2025. This trajectory will be supported by a dynamic labour market and steady wage growth – albeit at a slower pace than in recent years – leading to a projected GDP increase of around 2.4%. At the same time, early signs of a slowdown are beginning to surface, including a persistently low savings rate and weakening consumer confidence. Despite this, the ongoing housing shortage, together with a potential decline in interest rates, is likely to support residential investment, which is forecast to grow by around 1.4% in 2025 following a 4.2% rebound in 2024.

Nonetheless, the overall outlook remains highly dependent on trade policies adopted by the US government. A potential increase in tariffs on imported goods represents the greatest threat to the stability of the manufacturing sector, price trends and, by extension, interest rate dynamics. Inflation and interest rate trends will continue to shape demand-side investment in construction, while on the supply side, immigration policies – which could reduce workforce availability – and tariffs on input materials represent major challenges.

The US ceramic tile market is the world’s largest importer, accounting for more than 6% of global imports by volume and 8% by value. Between 2020 and 2024, domestic producers maintained an average market share of around 29%, while imports accounted for approximately 70% of total ceramic tile consumption, which averaged around 270 million square metres annually. The market is also characterised by a highly diversified supplier base. European producers, particularly Italy and Spain, together hold about a quarter of the market, while Latin American countries such as Mexico and Brazil account for about 18% of total US consumption. Among Asian suppliers, India has rapidly expanded its exports in recent years, gaining significant market share alongside other Southeast Asian countries. Between 2019 and 2023, US imports from India grew by more than 31 million square metres, establishing it as the top supplier by volume in the space of just a few years.

This highly diversified range of suppliers is reflected in the US import product mix, which tends to be less heavily focused on porcelain stoneware compared to major European markets. Despite this, Asian suppliers – typically offering lower-priced tiles – are also continuing to expand their presence in the porcelain segment. An estimated 20% of US imports consist of commodity products priced below €5/sqm, while the largest segment (45%) falls within the €5-10/sqm range. Tiles priced between €10-15/sqm account for a further 18%, while the remaining 17% are premium tiles priced above €15/sqm. Italy occupies this highest bracket, with an estimated average landed price of just under €25/sqm, approximately double the overall market average.

According to figures provided by the Tile Council of North America, US ceramic tile consumption reached 250.9 million square metres in 2024, down 5.1% compared to 2023. Domestic sales fell by around 9%, while total imports dropped by 3.5%. Italian producers, however, saw a recovery in sales to the US compared to 2023 in contrast to all other major exporters, whose sales continued to decline.

The outlook for US consumption is closely tied to trends in the construction sector, which is primarily influenced by interest rate fluctuations. According to forecasts from Prometeia, ceramic tile demand is projected to increase by around 1.8% in 2025, bringing total consumption back above the 255 million square metre mark.

In the import market, however, tariffs continue to represent a significant concern. The possible introduction of a flat-rate tariff applied uniformly to all foreign suppliers would disproportionately affect exporters operating in higher-priced segments, where the impact would be most pronounced.